Line movements reflect the public confidence, and eight days ahead of No. 6 Oregon's Big Ten road game at 6-2 Iowa, the line has moved slightly in the wrong direction for the Ducks.
Of course, the public is frequently wrong betting football, so much so that betting houses offer free drinks to keep punters (the betting kind, not the fourth down kind) in the building. But facts are that the Oregon at Iowa line has notched down a point from Ducks -6.5 at open to -5.5 four days later.
The over/under remains solid at 42.5, a low total that reflects a stubborn Iowa defense and a tough environment at Kinnick Stadium. The Moneyline has changed from Oregon -260 to Oregon -235, Iowa +210 to Iowa +190.
A month ago on September 27, the Hawkeyes held the high-flying Indiana offense to 20 points, the No. 2 Hoosiers needing a late 49-yard touchdown pass to escape with a 20-15 victory.
History also establishes the Webfoots as a slight favorite. In head-to-head matchups Oregon is 2-1 over the Hawkeyes, although their last meeting on the gridiron took place in 1994, a 40-18 win in Autzen Stadium that offered the first glimmer of hope in what became a Rose Bowl year.
In that one the Ducks erupted for 20 points in the second quarter, including a 5-yard TD pass from Danny O'Neil to Blake Spence and two scoring runs by Ricky Whittle.