Big Ten Football is readily divided into four distinct tiers.
Elites: These schools have everything they need to compete and make the playoffs:
1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Oregon
Defending national champion Ohio State lost 14 players to the NFL but the Buckeyes return the two best players in college football in Jeremiah Smith and Caleb Downs.
Five full years of elite recruiting give Ryan Day the talent base to reload. OSU picked up tight end Max Klare in the transfer portal.
Penn State's following the formula Michigan and Ohio State used to win the national championship with key players like Drew Allar, Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton opting in for a run at the title.
The Nittany Lions lost their two biggest playmakers to the NFL draft in tight end Tyler Warren and edge rusher Abdul Carter.
They stole defensive coordinator Jim Knowles from the Buckeyes, picked up North Carolina linebacker Amare Campbell in the portal, and got Allar help at wide receiver in Trebor Pena, Kyron Hudson and Devonte Ross from Troy.
Oregon sent ten to the NFL draft but hit the portal for 11 players, at least seven who should become starters and impact players.
Safety Dillon Thieneman racked up 210 tackles and six interceptions in two seasons at Purdue. Running back Makhi Hughes rushed for 2,776 yards at Tulane, with 1, 932 yards after contact.
Freshman wideout Dakorien Moore is explosive and should have an immediate impact. Transfers Isaiah World, Emmanuel Pregnon and Alex Harkey solidify the offense line, and the defensive line is deep with talent.
Contenders: These schools have the talent and could compete for the conference title game with one or two big wins.
4. Illinois
5. Indiana
6.Michigan
The Illini have the highest returning production in the conference, 80% on offense including two-year starter at quarterback Luke Altmyer. Leading rushers Josh McCray and Aidan Laughery are both back, and they averaged 5.2 and 6.1 yards per carry.
They're coming off a ten-win season and miss Oregon, Michigan and Penn State in 2025, finishing in November with four games against teams in the bottom half of the conference, three of them at home.
Indiana likely won't duplicate the magical run they had last year, but Curt Cignetti's second edition should still reach eight wins and a bowl. Cal transfer Fernando Mendoza takes over at quarterback.
Michigan won eight games and finished the year by beating Ohio State in the Horseshoe and Alabama at the Reliaquest Bowl. They have a new offensive coordinator in Chip Lindsey and a new quarterback in 5-star freshman Bryce Underwood, the No. 1 recruit in the 2025 class.
They miss Oregon, Illinois and Penn State. The Wolverines picked up Alabama running back Justice Haynes to combo with Jordan Marshall.
Defensive ends Derrick Moore and TJ Guy lead the defense after combining for 10.5 sacks last season. Both starting linebackers are back and the secondary is promising with Zeke Berry at cornerback and TJ Metcalf at safety.
Possibles: These teams could compete with luck and help
This is the largest tier, teams that will scrap for a bowl game and a winning season and could make the playoffs with a great run, some surprise emerging players and a couple of breaks.
7. Iowa
8. USC
9. Washington
10. Nebraska
11. Minnesota
12. UCLA
13. Rutgers
14. Michigan State
In the case of USC, Washington, Nebraska and Michigan State, much depends on the continued development of their young quarterback. They'll climb as far as Maiava, Williams, Raiola and Chiles take them.
No shot: This group lacks the talent base, infrastructure and organization to hope for a winning season.
15. Wisconsin
16. Maryland
17. Northwestern
18. Purdue
Wisconsin falls into this group in large part due to a brutal schedule. They meet eight Top 25 teams in 2025 and play Alabama, Michigan, Oregon, Indiana and Minnesota on the road, Iowa, Illinois and Ohio State at home.
The other three squads are in the midst of serious rebuilding.