Indiana is not invincible

Curt Cignetti's 14-0 Hoosier squad is the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. They're disciplined, well-coached and masters of complementary football, four-point favorites over the Ducks in the Peach Bowl, January 9 from Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta, 4:30 p.m. PT on ESPN.

The pundit class has already determined that IU is too good and too focused to lose in the semi-final, even though "it's tough to win a rematch" as the saying goes. In fact, since 2000 FBS teams have met twice in season 82 times. Of those, 45 resulted in sweeps, with 37 splits-- 38 out of 83 now that Ole Miss beat Georgia.

The Hoosiers are a solid football team. They rank No. 3 in scoring offense at 41.6 points a game, No. 2 in scoring defense at 10.3 points a game. They're undefeated. They just demolished Alabama 38-3 in the Rose Bowl, and before that they upended undefeated defending national champion Ohio State 13-10 to win the Big Ten title.

They're the only team to win a CFP quarterfinal game coming off a bye in the two years of the expanded playoff. The bye teams and conference champions are 1-7.

But Indiana is not invincible. Right now the narrative is how precise they are and how brilliantly Cignetti coaches them and that's all true, but narratives change, weekly. After the James Madison game Oregon didn't have a chance against Texas Tech because the Ducks lacked a championship defense. A week later they don't match up to the Hoosiers because their offense can't handle an elite Front 7.

Oregon needs better focus and execution for a better result in the rematch

A concern too is that it will take a great plan to beat the No. 1-seed, and right now the Ducks have two coordinators with one foot out the door, another narrative that may change.

Beating the Hoosiers requires that Oregon solve Indiana's bread-and-butter RPO game and contain Fernando Mendoza in the pocket, keep up the pressure they created against Texas Tech. They need a strong performance at the other cornerback opposite Brandon Finney in order to contain an efficient passing attack.

In their win at Autzen IU dumped the Ducks by ten, but it was 20-20 in the fourth quarter.

Offensively, the Ducks have to do a better job of protecting Dante Moore and keeping him in rhythm. They can't be so quick to abandon the running game. which did best on straight-ahead inside runs by Jordon Davison in the first matchup. Will Stein has to devote a higher quality of attention to his game plan, less reliant on predictable receiver screens that elite defenses overwhelm easily.

Six sacks killed them in the first game. Indiana won it with a drive in the fourth quarter, marching 75 yards in 12 plays while taking 6:15 off the clock, converting 3rd and 4, 3rd and 6, 2nd and 11 and 3rd and 8.

The Ducks have to have a better answer for Indiana's simulated pressures. Moore has to make quick, decisive reads, adjust the protection and find his outlets when necessary. He has to play with poise.

Although Cignetti's squad is the odds-on favorite to win it all, they won 20-15 at Iowa and needed a last-minute miracle drive to beat Penn State 27-24. They edged the Buckeyes with a 17-yard touchdown pass to Surratt in the third quarter.

After the JMU game it was the Oregon defense that needed redemption, and they responded with a 23-0 shutout against Texas Tech. In the semifinal it's the Oregon offensive line that needs to regain its footing. They've had their two worse games of the season against the elite defensive fronts of Indiana and Texas Tech, marred by a litany of missed blocks, bad snaps and drive-killer penalties.