Is it time to panic about 2026 Oregon football recruiting?

It's never time to panic. But it is time to pivot. It's time to act out of a cohesive strategy.

Thirteen of the Top 20 prospects in Rivals Top 100 have not committed yet, though the Ducks have had four decommitments and some big misses.

Lost in the hoopla over Kayden Dixon-Wyatt's decision to choose the impressive wide receiver tradition at Ohio State, Derek Colman-Brusa announced yesterday, a four-star edge rusher from Burien, Washington, No. 31 at his position in the country, another Oregon target.

That's the second time in recent weeks the Ducks have lost a player they coveted in a head-to-head battle with Washington. Five-star Mater Dei offensive tackle Kodi Greene, originally from Sammamish, Wash., flipped on April 24. He also chose to return home.

Jared Curtis, the No. 4 prospect and No. 2 quarterback in the nation, announces today between Oregon and Georgia.

It's important to address some misconceptions.

"It's early."

It's not as early as fans think. Yes, it's seven months until signing day, but in the NIL/portal era, recruits are deciding earlier, and most stick with their decisions.

"Most of theses guys will change their minds anyway."

Flips get a lot of attention because they are spectacular news, but 80 to 90 percent of recruits stick with their original decisions. They want to get it out of the way and focus on their senior years. Recruiting is a grind.

"We'll win with the portal, coaching and development."

The foundation of a program that can win national championships and compete in the playoffs remains in high school recruiting. To win a program has to stack classes in the Top five range and most national champions have at least one No. 1 overall class.

Ohio State in 2024-25, Michigan, Georgia and Georgia had an average of 14 players drafted, and four taken in the first round. The Wolverines had just one first-rounder, quarterback J.J. McCarthy, but three more taken the following year.

Oregon needs some wins in recruiting. Like football itself it's a momentum game. Curtis announces today and Jackson Cantwell on May 13th. A class in the teens won't get it done, not when Ohio State, USC and Penn State are in the Top 7.

Between now and mid-July, the bulk of the Top 100 will come off the board. The Ducks have to find 25 good players in this class, and right now they are at seven.

Dan Lanning certainly knows what he's doing in this frenzied marketplace, but the Ducks need some wins. It won't effect them in 2025, but it will shape their future.

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