The line for the Boise State at Oregon opener lacks historical accuracy and relies too much on celebrity star power.
FanDuel and other betting sites offer the Ducks as 24.5-point favorites, ignoring the fact that the hosts are 1-3 all-time against the Broncos, a sordid history that includes upset losses in 2008, 2009 and 2017. In their one win in the series in 2024, Dan Lanning, Dillon Gabriel and the No. 3 Webfoots needed a punt return touchdown, a kickoff return touchdown and a field goal on the last play of the game to win 37-34.
All odds and lines are subject to change
Good teams win and great teams cover, but the Ducks have never covered against Boise, who move this year to the reconfigured PAC-12 after 15 seasons of dominating the Mountain West. With head coach Spencer Danielson in his fourth season and three-year starter at quarterback Maddux Madsen now a senior, the Broncos are both the favorites in their new conference and the preseason pick to earn the playoff spot from the G6.
Once again, Boise invades Autzen as a big underdog with nothing to lose
Danielson remains undaunted about facing the Ducks, who enter 2026 as a national championship contender, ranked No. 2 in the SuperWest Composite. "You’re always going to have one of those games that is outside your weight class," Danielson said to On3 Sports' Pete Nakos, "But you know what, you don’t have to beat them 10 times; you have to find a way to beat them once, right?"
Last year was mixed. The team won their third straight league title at 9-5 but missed the playoffs, losing 38-10 to Washington in the LA Bowl. Madsen slumped a bit to 58.3 percent passing with 18 touchdowns and 9 interceptions, and the team struggled to score points in their five losses, held to a single touchdown by USF, Notre Dame, Fresno State and San Diego State, 10 versus the Huskies.
Two years ago BSU made the field in the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff, relying on Heisman runner-up Ashton Jeanty, who ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns while taking a serious run at Barry Sanders' all-time single-season record.
The running game is still strong, featuring 5-10, 190 Dylan Riley and 6-0, 217 Sire Gaines, who combined for 1,936 yards and 18 touchdowns in 2025. The team has to replace four of their top five wide receivers, though the returning group includes speedsters Darren Morris, a transfer from Southern University, Quinton Brown and Cameron Bates. The offensive line returns three starters but replaces both guys on the left side.
Defensively, the unit is led by junior Jayden Virgin-Morgan who posted six sacks and 13 tackles for loss a year ago. Safety Derek Garter is the only returning starter in the secondary. Sacks fell from 55 in the playoff year to just 27, coupled with struggles in the Red Zone.
Oregon should have an easy time with this group, but that was true in the previous four meetings as well. They don't want to start this promising season with another blue hangover.
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