Boise State owns a 3-1 record against Oregon with Duck losses in 2008, 2009 and 2017, but the Broncos don't have Chris Petersen, Kellen Moore or Ashton Jeanty anymore.
The Ducks open this season with a September 5 date against their old nemesis, and this time they are a 17.5-point favorite according to Vegas Insider. DraftKings has the game at Oregon -24.5, a disparity smart gamblers might exploit.
The Broncos have moved to the new PAC-12 along with former Mountain West rivals San Diego State, Fresno State, Colorado State and Utah State. They're easily the class of the new conference at No. 39 in ESPN's SP+, making them the highest-ranked team in the Group of Six.
Even so, there's a big talent gap between the rosters. Oregon, a national championship contender after a 13-2 season, has a roster valuation of $43.0 million according to the NIL Standard, with five projected first round draft picks. The Broncos roster is valued at $22.1 million, although they don't pay that much for it. They pride themselves on doing more with less.
And indeed they have. The program has enjoyed 25 straight winning seasons, including a stretch of 92-12 under the Hall of Famer Petersen. In their glory years they owned upset wins over Oklahoma, Georgia, Virginia Tech and TCU, besides taking three in a row from UO.
They've won three straight conference titles, including a 12-2 season in 2024 when they reached the first College Football Playoff behind Jeanty, who ran for 2,601 yards and 29 touchdowns while finishing second in the Heisman Trophy to Colorado's Travis Hunter.
A 0-10 streak against the Power 4 tarnishes the legacy
Despite the proud history, Spencer Danielson's squad isn't the giant-killer they used to be.
Boise State has lost 10 straight games against P4 opponents:
— WestCoastCFB (@WestCoastCFB) May 17, 2026
Washington - L 38-10
Notre Dame - L 28-7
Penn St - L 31-14
Oregon - L 37-34
UCLA - L 35-22
Oklahoma St - L 21-20
UCF - L 18-16
Washington - L 56-19
Oregon St - L 34-17
Washington - L 38-7
The Broncos begin the 2026…
Jeanty is in the NFL now along with beastly left tackle Kage Casey, drafted in the fourth round by the Denver Broncos. The new PAC-12 kingpins still have a potent running game, featuring junior Dylan Riley, 1,125 yards and 10 touchdowns last year, 5.7 yards a carry, plus redshirt sophomore Sire Gaines, 811 yards in 2025, 8 touchdowns, 5.0 yards a carry.
Senior Maddux Madsen is a third-year starter at quarterback, a 61 percent passer who's thrown for 6,586 yards and 50 touchdowns in his career. He'll work behind a rebuilt offensive line and the team lacked explosiveness at receiver last season, two things they'll try to sort out in Fall Camp.
Boise's recipe for an upset is to pound the rock with Riley and Gaines while sneaking behind the rebuilt Oregon secondary with a couple of play-action passes, maybe a trick play or two. While the oddsmakers say it shouldn't be close, Duck fans have seen this movie before.
In 2024 Jeanty bolted for 192 yards and three touchdowns as the upstarts from the Gem State, 18.5-point underdogs at kickoff, took the Ducks to the last play of the game. Dillon Gabriel and the Oregon offense sputtered with a pair of fumbles and costly penalties.
They needed a 100-yard kickoff return by Noah Whittington and an 85-yard punt return by Tez Johnson to win. In another fortunate twist, Whittington's fumble a yard short of the goal line was picked up reserve running back Jayden Limar in the end zone. Limar is now a transfer, projected to be the starter at Washington.
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