Oregon haters who think the Ducks are on upset watch have another thing coming

The Oregon Ducks are coming off a major win over the Iowa Hawkeyes last Saturday, and must have a short-term memory this week. The Ducks will host the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Friday night, giving them one less day to prepare for the bout. With the Ducks' playoff fate largely in their own hands, every game must be treated like a win-or-go-home.

Oregon just beat a really good team. Many picked the Ducks to lose the rainy battle in Iowa City, but the heroics of Dante Moore and Atticus Sappington silenced the doubts. The national perception of the Ducks took a hit after losing to Indiana, and has since fallen further after the College Football Playoff committee pointed out their weak resume. The Ducks will likely need to win their final three games to get in, and it starts with the 6-3 Golden Gophers on Friday.

Some voices doubt the Ducks and count on them to drop one of these crucial final games. However, all the statistics and metrics tell us one thing: Oregon should have no problems beating Minnesota. The Ducks opened as 23.5-point favorites, showing the confidence that Las Vegas has in Oregon. However, for some, that may not be enough. So, I created an AI model to simulate the game on Friday 20 different times.

While nothing can predict the future, and this model doesn't go super in-depth, we combined the key metrics that determine football games to simulate how this game could play out. Stats like points per game, strength of schedule, red-zone touchdown percentage, passing yards, rushing yards, and third-down conversion percentage were big keys on offense. Sacks, turnovers, and the defense's ability to limit the offensive stats we mentioned were accounted for. There are plenty of other advanced stats given weight in the model, but these are the basics. More than anything, it was just a fun experiment for tinkering with different stats, and I claim to be no expert.

While looking at the base-level stats on Sports Reference, it is clear to see that Oregon is the better team offensively and defensively. The Ducks score 38.7 points per game, and only allow 13.8 on defense. They beat the Gophers in both passing and rushing offense. On the other hand, the Golden Gophers score 23.8 and allow 21.6 points per game. Minnesota has had a slightly harder-ranked schedule, which the model accounted for.

There is a chance that there will be some showers on Friday, so we decided to run the model 10 times for dry weather and 10 times for wet. In the rain, scoring is lowered, and the chances for turnovers are increased. The model boosted or lowered the stats according to the weather and how teams are usually impacted by rain. Oregon has home-field advantage, so the model gave them +3 points.

What the Model Says

In dry games, Oregon won every single time. There were a few scenarios where the Ducks and Gophers were in a shootout, but the Ducks always came out on top. In some cases, the model predicted there could be high-scoring games for both teams, with one of such cases being a bizarre 61-49 win for Oregon.

While that seems extremely unlikely, the point of the exercise was to see how many times the Ducks would beat the Gophers and by how much, rather than looking at specific hypothetical results. In dry conditions, Oregon went 10-0, with an average margin of victory of 16 points. In the rain, the Ducks went 9-1. The average margin of victory was just slightly lower at 15.8 points.

Conclusion

While the model was just an exciting way to give different stats meaning and translate them into the upcoming game, the regular stats are more than enough to have confidence in Oregon. If the simulation had run 1000 times, the results could have been very different. But Oregon's talent and advantage on offense and defense are clear as day. If the Ducks play to their standard, Oregon should have no problem winning this game.