Oregon and Penn State will meet for the sixth time, the second with both teams as members of the Big Ten conference. Oregon famously took the last matchup, a 45-37 thriller in the Big Ten championship in December.
The all-time series favors Penn State, a 2-3 lead. Only one of those matchups took place in the 21st century, the second-most recent being played in the 1994 Rose Bowl, which Penn State won.
The rankings have liked Penn State more than Oregon thus far, and the oddsmakers give the edge to the Nittany Lions as well. The Ducks are three-point underdogs going into the daunting whiteout atmosphere, which historically does not bode well for Oregon under Dan Lanning. Though a small sample size, Oregon is 0-2 as away underdogs in the Lanning era.
Though the away underdog stats don't look good for Oregon, one stat looms over Penn State and head coach James Franklin. He is 4-20 against AP top 10 opponents, which has made him and his program the butt of many jokes since his 2014 hiring.
Franklin feels that this is his most talented team ever, and it's a fair assessment. The Nittany Lions returned the 33rd most production in the nation (63% overall), which trumps Oregon's 109th ranking. Oregon's young stars, including true freshmen Dakorien Moore and Brandon Finney have been more than impressive, but experience in these big spots is often what it comes down to.
Who on Oregon can make plays like Dillon Gabriel to Terrance Ferguson on 4th down in Oregon's narrow-victory games last year? Those are intangible factors which will decide this game, that an inexperienced Oregon roster may not have.
Let's take a look at each position for this game, and who has the matchup advantage.
Quarterback
Advantage: Oregon
Some may feel that this is a hot take, as Dante Moore is inexperienced in comparison to Penn State QB Drew Allar, and many people's last time watching him play a full football game was his rocky start to his career at UCLA. He has been truly elite thus far for the Ducks.
He has thrown for nearly 1000 yards this season, with an 11:1 TD:INT ratio. He has completed 75% of his passes, with an impressive 12 air yards per attempt. Moore has also flashed some creativity and talent with his legs, rushing for 87 yards through four games. With Oregon's big point differentials this season, Moore has yet to complete a full game under center for the Ducks.
Drew Allar has the experience advantage to be certain. This is his third season as the signal caller for Penn State, but has yet to put together a stretch of elite performances. One could make an easy argument that his best career game was in the Big Ten championship against Oregon. With a borderline useless receiver room, Allar consistently found a variety of pass catchers to get the ball to, while extending plays with his legs in a very impressive way.
Penn State made some serious upgrades to their receiving corp, although of course the loss of all-American tight end Tyler Warren to the NFL was a brutal blow. They brought in three high-level transfers to adjust (more on that later), but it has not shown up on the field.
According to Josh Pate, Drew Allar is 2/9 on passes of 20 or more air yards, and Penn State overall has just six explosive passing plays. Oregon has 31 explosive passing plays this season.
A small sample size, but Moore has shown why many around the team believed he had a chance to be the best QB in the Lanning era.
Running Back
Advantage: Penn State
Penn State has two of the best running backs in the nation, and arguably the best duo in the nation, the only pair even close would be Notre Dame's Jadarian Price and Jeremiyah Love.
Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton should be names very familiar to Oregon fans. After all, they combined for 229 rushing yards in the Big Ten championship, another 58 through the air, for two touchdowns.
Both are great, but Allen has proven to not only be the more efficient back this season, but the more explosive play maker of the two. He is averaging 8 yards per carry so far, but both can hurt and wear down a defense in a big way. When Penn State gets into 22 and 21 personnels, they are a dangerous offense.
Oregon's running back room is not short on talent, and certainly not short on depth. Dan Lanning has been preaching "strength in numbers" since the spring, and it has proven to be more than just coach speak.
Seven Oregon running backs have at least 12 carries this season, and all have been effective. Noah Whittington, Jayden Limar, Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. will all be featured in this game, four will play at minimum.
Despite the impressive depth, Penn State has the advantage here with the ridiculous high-end talent of Allen and Singleton.
Wide Receiver
Advantage: Oregon
If you asked me in August who would have the advantage at the receiver position in this game, I would have had a different answer. On paper, saying Penn State would have made a lot of sense.
Drew Allar is one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the nation, they have a great offensive line, and the run game does more than enough to keep defenders in the box, opening up 1-on-1 matchups for their receivers.
More importantly, the Nittany Lions upgraded at receiver in a big way. Syracuse transfer Trebor Peña was the biggest name, after going for 941 yards and 9 TD in 2024 (while being coached by current Oregon receivers coach Ross Douglas). They also brought in Kyron Hudson from USC, an experienced, productive receiver looking to get out of the shadow of superstars Makai Lemon and Ja'Kobi Lane. Lastly, Devonte Ross joined the room, who was one of the best players in all of the group of five in 2024, putting together over 1000 yards and 11 TD while playing for the Troy Trojans.
It's a massive upgrade from their unit which failed to haul in a single pass in their semi-final loss to Notre Dame at the Orange Bowl.
On the Oregon side, going into the season, they were without their perceived number one guy in Evan Stewart. The home-run threat receiver suffered a knee injury while training in the summer and is likely to miss most if not all of the season. It left the Oregon receiver room with talent, but a bunch of bold, underlined question marks.
Through development, high school recruiting, and the portal, Oregon has crafted a deep, talented receiver room that has proven to be more than capable of producing big plays.
True freshman Dakorien Moore, the consensus number one receiver in the class of 2025 has been the brightest star thus far. Not only does he lead the team in receiving yards, but he appears capable of making any play on the field, in the screen game, across the middle, go-balls, and contested catches.
Expect Dakorien Moore's role to evolve throughout the season, including being used out of the backfield, as Oregon did with Tez Johnson last year against Penn State.
Alongside Moore, the Ducks added Malik Benson from FSU via Alabama, a once highly-rated JUCO prospect who has failed to live up to expectations -- until he got to Eugene. He has consistently been Dante Moore's favorite target downfield.
Sixth year senior, former five-star Gary Bryant, and former high four-star redshirt freshman Jeremiah McClellan make an elite room, even if the nation hasn't learned their names yet.
Tight End
For the second year in a row, this matchup could feature the best tight end in the nation. Of course last year it was Penn State's Tyler Warren, who's now shining for the Indianapolis Colts. This year, it is Oregon's Kenyon Sadiq. Time will tell on if Sadiq ends up being the nation's best, but he has certainly caught the eye of many.
He was featured on Bruce Feldman's "Freak's List" for a reason. The 6 foot 3 inch 245 pound junior is a matchup nightmare. He is one of the fastest players on the team regardless of position, and is an outstanding blocker, mauling defensive backs and linebackers.
He was the star of the Big Ten championship last season, scoring Oregon's first two touchdowns, the first a thrilling 28-yard touchdown which included a full-clear hurdle, the second was a wide open touchdown set up by a fake toss to the boundary.
Sadiq's impact was equally felt as an inline as a blocker. He mauled superstar edge rusher Abdul Carter on multiple occasions. Sadiq will need to be ready to block this week, both in the run game and as a chipper, as Oregon will attempt to manage Penn State's star edge rusher (yes, they have another one) Dani Dennis-Sutton.
Oregon tight end Jamari Johnson, a Louisville transfer, has shown some flashes thus far and could have a big impact if Penn State over-commits to Sadiq.
Now without all-American Tyler Warren, Penn State utilizes a pair of very good tight ends as well. Khalil Dinkins and Luke Reynolds both returned for James Franklin's squad. Dinkins was the more productive of the two in 2024 by a slim margin, but Reynolds has seen high usage so far this season. With 13 receptions, and 142 yards, Reynolds ranks 2nd and third respectively on Penn State.
Offensive Line
Advantage: Penn State
Penn State has some more proven commodities at the power four level here, but it is yet another close one. The group is headlined by all-American candidate interior lineman Olaivavega Ioane, and anchored by experienced senior tackles Drew Shelton and Nolan Rucci.
They do an excellent job in run blocking, with the ability to seamlessly go from inside zone to outside schemes, and are more than mobile enough to reach to the next level.
Four of Penn State's five starters from last year's dominant 13-3 season return, a unit that paved the way for Singleton and Allen to combine for over 200 yards in the Big Ten championship game last year. With questions still looming over Oregon's run defense, Penn State's offensive line will be one of the deciding factors in this game.
Oregon's offensive line is not without talent, to be sure. Center Iapani "Poncho" Laloulu and left tackle Isaiah World were both pre-season all-American picks, and right tackle, Texas State transfer Alex Harkey has been better than any Duck fan expected.
Oregon have allowed just one sack all season, on a buster RPO play against Oregon State, and have looked dominant in the run game thus far. While neither team has faced a team with a pulse, Penn State's experience and proven play as a unit give them the edge here.