The college football season is coming down to the final stretch, and this season the race for the College Football Playoff and Big Ten Championship is wide open. Quarterback injuries and roster turnover have evened the playing field this weekend, and what once seemed like a rare upset is becoming a weekly occurrence. The chaos around the country and conference has become especially good news for the Oregon Ducks as the goal of making the CFP is still alive.
After knocking off Ohio State in Columbus, Oregon's chances of making the Playoff are back alive, and while the easiest path is by winning the Big Ten, earning an at-large bid is still a possibility.
Where Oregon's College Football Playoff hopes stand after Week 10 win
When fans started to look at Oregon potentially making the College Football Playoff, the entire conversation started with beating Ohio State. Now that the Ducks went into Columbus and emptied out The Shoe at the start of the 4th quarter, the conversation is certainly worth having, as the path is realistic.
Everything obviously starts with Oregon winning the final 3 games of the regular season, as another loss kills all hopes. Michigan is first on the schedule, and their offense has been a train wreck this season, leading to the firing of the highest-paid offensive coordinator in the country. Michigan State just picked up their first Big Ten win over Michigan, but Pat Fitzgerald's team looks far from a serious threat. The finale against Washington is always a test, but Jedd Fisch's team is just 2-4 in league play, and could be focused on the offseason by the time that game rolls around.
Indiana at 5-1 is the biggest hurdle in Oregon's path as the Ducks need the Hoosiers to lose one of their final 3 games. This weekend's game against USC may be the biggest threat to Curt Cignetti's team as the following two weeks against Washington and Purdue are fairly easy for the Hoosiers. If the Hoosiers win out the rest of the regular season, they'll be in the Big Ten Championship, blocking one path for the Ducks.
In the group of two loss teams, Oregon needs Illinois to take another loss as they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Ducks. The next three games are going to be a challenge for Bret Bielema's team as they face UCLA, Iowa, and Northwestern, and this weekend's road game against the Bruins could be the one to circle.
The trickiest part of the path to the Big Ten Championship is the Wisconsin Badgers as the final 3 games could determine the tiebreakers if they don't suffer another loss. The teams didn't play head-to-head, and share wins over USC and losses to UCLA, but there aren't many shared opponents. Luke Fickell's team losing once over the final 3 weeks would eliminate all concerns, but the Badgers have an easy schedule with games against Maryland, Purdue, and Minnesota.
If the Big Ten Championship Game isn't available to the Ducks, it's all going to come down to if the Ducks can earn an at-large bid. The Ducks were ranked 23rd in the initial College Football Playoff rankings, but the win over Ohio State should vault them into the mid-teens. Oregon might need some help in the form of upsets down the stretch, but it's much harder to lay out that path given the weekly rankings reveals.
Dan Lanning's team has worked their way back into the conversation, but now it's all about continuing to control what you can control to ensure you're in the picture at the end of the year. All Oregon can control is how they play, and if you end the season 9-3, you'll almost certainly be in the mix when Selection Sunday rolls around.
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