FiveThirtyEight: Oregon’s Probability Of an Upset vs Wisconsin, 13 Percent


When it comes to data and statistics the folks at are among the best. When it comes to predicting college basketball, they are pretty good too. Oregon fans will not be very happy with their latest set of statistics. Of all the games on Sunday, the chances for an Oregon upset over Wisconsin is thirteen percent. It is the lowest of all the games of the day.

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Of course, we can’t just look at straight up statistics. You can’t play a game on paper, right? If Oregon is going to pull off the win on Sunday, they will have to have a big game from Senior Joseph Young. He posted twenty-seven points against Oklahoma State in the Second Round of the Tournament and hit the game winner against Utah in the Pac-12 Tournament Quarterfinals. Young will have to find a way to get inside against the Wisconsin big men. There may be another advantage for Oregon.

On the other side you have Wisconsin led by Frank Kaminsky, who had his twelfth double-double of the year in their Second Round win against Coastal Carolina.Kaminsky has been a leader all season for the Badgers and is a big reason they have just three losses on the year.

We all know that the Oregon Football team can be fast on Offense, the Ducks Basketball team is the thirty-third fastest offense on the court, where Wisconsin is the third slowest. A quick start will be important for Dana Altman’s team on Sunday. FiveThirtyEight says if Oregon can run their tempo there is a better chance of an upset against the Badgers. Oregon is 2-5 against ranked teams this year, but as a Conference, the Pac-12 is 7-0 so far in the 2015 NCAA Tournament.

Oregon and Wisconsin faced each other last season in the NCAA Tournament so they should know each other pretty well. The Ducks and Badgers tipoff at 4:50pm Pacific Time Sunday on TruTv.