College Football Matrix: Oregon State Will Test Oregon In Civil War
Oregon Football enters the final week of the season without any pressure, simply needing a win, but it may not be easy according to the College Football Matrix.
Our conversation with Dave Bartoo this week took us into the recent past for the Pac-12 Conference, as well as a look at the game next season with Ohio State. The breakdown for this week between the Ducks and Beavers was a bit of a surprise to me, but it probably shouldn’t have been since Oregon State has won road games this season and they have done it with style points in some cases.
Entering the week when you look at the Offensive Scoring Efficiency over the last month, the Ducks are 13th, Oregon State is 16th. Bartoo explains the numbers, “Scoring efficiency is rooted in efficiency per play. Oregon, when they were putting up points with Chip Kelly, was running 100 plays a game, now they are doing it with less than half that. When you widdle it down you start to even the playing field.”
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The College Football Matrix sees Oregon Football winning at home by 10 points. Bartoo warns if Oregon State gets ahead in the game, they have the talent to stay ahead, even against Oregon. This is not the Beavers teams of the past. OSU has won three Pac-12 road games. Bartoo says that if it weren’t for a few plays the Beavers could be 7-3 or 8-4 this season. Oregon State has enough talent to get the lead and keep it.
While the Ducks are likely out of the College Football Playoff, the other Pac-12 team with a chance, Utah, like is as well according to the College Football Matrix.
Utah simply needs to beat Colorado to win the Pac-12 South. The Utes have four quality wins this season. They need to hold onto quality wins and several may be disappearing this weekend. The Washington win helped, but Cal also needs to win. Bartoo says Utah is likely on the outside looking in with the Oregon/Utah winner going to the Rose Bowl. Right now, he sees Utah beating Oregon in the Pac-12 Championship game.
Looking ahead to next season, things are also not looking favorable for Oregon in their matchup the second week of the season with Ohio State coming to town. For the moment, Bartoo says it will not be good for Oregon, “A freshman quarterback with a new offensive line vs the number two recruiter in the country. ” While Tyler Shough is technically not a Freshman, he has not seen a lot of on-field experience this season.
Back to the present. Oregon Football and Oregon State kick off at 1 pm Pacific Time on Pac-12 Network.
Information obtained in a conversation with Dave Bartoo, College Football Matrix